Category Archives: Country Paths

Comparing countries.

A Vietnam and Afghanistan Analysis

By Rick Bretz

The human toll these countries have paid due to both of them being a political football throughout the last century into the current one is staggering.  The estimated death toll for the Vietnam Wars just from 1959-1975 is 58,000 US troops, 1.1 million of the North Vietnamese Army, and one-half to 2 million civilian deaths.  If estimates include Cambodia and Laos, the death toll rises to more than five million.  Afghanistan’s death toll numbers from 1979-2001 have been estimated from one-and-a-half million to more that two million.  After 2001 to the present, the cost in lives for US forces is more than 1500 with an additional 20 to 50 thousand civilian casualties due to terrorist activity and the consequences of using modern warfare weaponry.  These numbers are always being revised upward and in the case of Vietnam, the numbers don’t include the casualties that were inflicted during World War II and afterwards with Ho Chi Minh’s rebellious war with the French supported by the Soviet’s and Chinese communist governments.

US-Map of Soviet Invasion in Afghanistan
US-Map of Soviet Invasion in Afghanistan (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Comparisons between Vietnam and Afghanistan are easy to understand.  After all, the Soviet Union military leadership was discussing ways to get out of Afghanistan as early as 1980 due to tribal disputes, the difficulty and lack of mountain warfare training, and the strong Mujahideen force combating against the Soviet occupation.  However, like the United States in Vietnam twenty years before, the muddy politics and refusal to understand the local culture thought process prevented them from acting on that understanding quickly.

In an interview with Zbigniew Brzezinski with the French Le Nouvel Observateur, he stated that… “on July 3, 1979 US President Carter signed the first directive for secret aid to the opponents of the pro-Soviet regime in Kabul…We didn’t push the Russians to intervene, but we knowingly increased the probability that they would. The day the Soviets officially crossed the border, I wrote to President Carter: We now have the opportunity of giving to the USSR its Vietnam War…”

The sad history about the Soviet invasion into Afghanistan and the 30 years since is that women in the country were enjoying more freedoms and educational opportunities before 1979.  Since the invasion, the civil war, and the Taliban control, those freedoms were stripped away and in its place abusive restrictions became normal procedure until the invasion of Afghanistan in 2001.  Since the invasion, the progress toward more freedom for women has been slow but noticeable.

What is interesting to note in the timelines below is that Vietnam was unstable and volatile early in the last century but is now is relatively steady with economic opportunities. Afghanistan is just the opposite.  The country was relatively sound early in the last century but was thrown into turmoil later on and into the current age.

English: From George L. MacGarrigle, The Unite...
English: From George L. MacGarrigle, The United States Army in Vietnam: Combat Operations, Taking the Offensive, October 1966-October 1967. Washington DC: Center of Military History, 1998. Category:Vietnam War (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Another commonality with both wars was the formation of resistance fighters.  One fought against Soviet occupation in Afghanistan, the Mujahideen, while the other, The Viet Cong, the communist organization in Vietnam, waged war against US and other NATO forces.  Both civilian populations played a part in accepting or covertly disrupting operations.  Both wars, especially before 2001, were proxy wars funded by superpower money and weapons, sometimes masked and filtered through their allies. The initial social and tribal readings by intelligence analysts underestimated local politics and influence by local leaders in both wars.  The Soviets misread the conviction of the Mujahideen and the influence of Islam throughout the nation.  In addition, the PDPA, the communist leadership, was never as unified as the Soviet Politburo leaders were led to believe before invading on the request of Afghanistan PM Amin.  As with Vietnam, the diplomatic and government phenomenon of mission creep occurred for the Soviet military, the Soviet army initially occupied the country to protect cities and installations.  Over time, the army, composed of reservists and regulars, began to engage in combat missions that expanded.  Like the US in Vietnam, the Soviet Army had to fight a guerilla war they were not prepared to prosecute in the beginning.  They were fighting against rebels who knew their own terrain.

There are differences between the present Afghanistan War and the Soviet Union invasion. The US war in Afghanistan is retaliation against aggression from elements inside the country on September 11th, 2001.  The US force went in knowing the units had to fight in addition to securing cities and installations. Military leaders also had studied Afghanistan terrain, the climate, and tribal politics in addition to the lessons learned from the Soviet occupation.  The US leadership didn’t say this at the time of the invasion, but the fight on terrorism was a long-term commitment to Afghanistan. That meant,  if necessary, they were willing to stay past 10 years in the country to secure the region.

I can write for days concerning this topic.  If you have any comments or notes, please post them.  I am looking forward to reading other ideas about this topic.

 

Notable Links:

http://www.e-ir.info/2010/01/03/the-soviet-union%E2%80%99s-last-war/

http://www.guidetorussia.com/russia-afghanistan.asp

http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB57/soviet.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_war_in_Afghanistan

http://english.pravda.ru/history/28-12-2011/120105-ussr_afghanistan-0/

http://www.infoplease.com/encyclopedia/history/vietnam-war-us-involvement.html

http://wiki.answers.com/Q/How_many_people_died_in_the_Vietnam_War

Afghanistan -Comparison Timeline

1913-1920 1919-Afghanistan regains independence from British occupying forces.
1933-1945 1933-Zahir Shah becomes King and Afghanistan remains a monarchy for the next four decades.
1945-1953 1953-General Mohammed Daud becomes prime minister with King Shah a figure-head and implements many social reforms.  Gen. Daud asks for help from the Soviet government.
1954-1961 1956-Soviet Premier Nikita Krushchev agrees to aid Afghanistan and the countries become allies.    Daud’s reforms include women attending university and working.
1960-1963 1963-Daoud’s social reforms continue agitating the conservative religious community.
1964-1968 1965-The Afghan communist party forms.
1969-1975 1973-The former PM Daud seizes power in a coup, deposes King Shah and declares a republic
1976-1979 1978-PM Daud is overthrown and killed by the leftist People’s Democratic Party during a coup. Hufizullah Amin wins a power struggle, becomes president. The People’s Democratic Party (PDPA) struggle for power.  1979-The Soviet Union occupies country at the request of Afghanistan’s communist party leaders.
1979-2001 1980-With occupying Soviet troops supplying power, Party Leader Babrak Kamal becomes the countries leader.

Other Significant Dates

1979-2001

1980-Afghan Army soldiers defect to Mujahideen rebel force, led by Ahmad Massoud.

1980-US   and other nations supply rebel forces.

1986-US supplies stinger missiles to rebels to shoot down   Soviet air power.

1988-Last of   the Soviet troops leave Afghanistan.

1996-Taliban  seize control of Afghanistan and carry out harsh Islamic doctrine controls.

2001-Present

9-9-2001-Massoud assassinated by suicide bombing

9-11-2001-Terrorist  attacks on US Soil.

2001-US   and Great Britain launch invasion of country after it refuses to hand-over  Osama Bin Laden, the master mind of the 9/11 attacks on US soil.

2001-Taliban ousted from power.

2004-Democratic  elections held in country, electing Hamid Karzai as President.

2012– Continued US and NATO presence in the region.  Karzai still in power. Taliban force strength reduced but still launches attacks from mountainous region bordering Pakistan.

   Vietnam Timeline-Comparison Timeline

1913-1920 1919-Ho Chi Minh emerges after WW I and tries to petition Woodrow Wilson for Self Determination
1933-1945 1940-Japan invades   Vietnam.  1941-Ho Chi Minh   organizes pro independence league.  1945-Japan surrenders.  Minh declares independence and unites all French colonial provinces to form Vietnam.

 

1945-1953 1946-National Chinese, French, and Viet Minh struggle   for control of the Viet Territory.  1946-Beginning   of First Vietnam War between French and Viet Minh.  China and USSR back Viet   Minh. US back French to stop the spread of communism.
1954-1961 1954-Viet Minh defeat French at Dien Bien Phu, leading to Geneva negotiations diving   Vietnam at the 17th Parallel.

1955-1956-Emperor Bao Dai is forced from power by Ngo Dinh Diem. He declares himself president and gains support from US. US sends advisors

1960-1963 1960-National Liberation Front  (Viet Cong) forms to fight against US   Forces and President Diem.  1963-US supports military Coup against President Diem. Diem’s murder during the coup leads to a number of successive leaders.
1964-1968 1964-Gulf of Tonkin Resolution give President Johnson   war powers.  1965-US Combat   Troops arrive in Vietnam (Second Vietnam War).  1968-Tet offensive launched by Ho Chi Minh and Viet Cong.
1969-1975 1969– Ho Chi Minh dies.  1973-Nixon and Kissinger negotiate peace treaty. US   withdraws a majority of troops.  1974-President Ford balks at sustaining aid to South Vietnam Forces.  1975-Viet Nam unified under   communist rule after taking Saigon, which they rename Ho Chi Minh City.
1976-1979 1978-Vietnam invades Cambodia, trying to take over from the Khmer Rouge. Tensions with China increase.
1979-2001 1986-Vietnam revises strategy and commits to social and market reforms.  1995-Diplomatic relations normalized between US and Vietnam.
2001-Present 2010/2011-Academic year-More than 14,800 students studies at US colleges and universities.  2012– Trade between US and Vietnam continue to increase.